Election pundit Nate Silver slammed FiveThirtyEight for suspending its presidential predictions — offering a “theory” that the website he founded is expecting Vice President Kamala Harris’ poll numbers to improve.
Silver, the statistician and data journalist who rose to fame in 2008 after accurately predicting the results of the presidential election, called out the ABC-owned website on Monday for not publishing new polls since Harris replaced President Biden as the running mate. supposed democrat.
A note on the FiveThirtyEight website says: “As of July 21 at 2:00 PM Eastern, President Joe Biden has suspended his campaign for the 2024 Democratic Party nomination for president.
“We will publish an election forecast including the new presumptive Democratic nominee when such a candidate is announced.”
One X user posted a screenshot of FiveThirtyEight’s disclaimer and wrote: “The 538 preview isn’t real yet? What are they waiting for?”
Silver wrote in response: “My theory is that Harris was doing worse than Biden in their model and they are waiting until she does at least as well or differently what to do about it.”
My theory is that Harris was doing worse than Biden in their model and they are waiting until she does at least as well or differently what to do about it.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 5, 2024
When asked to clarify, Silver wrote that his statement was a “theory” and “not an accusation.”
“Not based on any inside information,” he wrote in a follow-up post, which was first reported by news site Mediaite.
The post has requested comment from FiveThirtyEight.
Harris wrapped up the nomination in a virtual roll call on Monday and named progressive Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate on Tuesday.
Silver’s own poll in June had Republican nominee Donald Trump handily beating Biden before the president dropped out of the race after his debate.
His most recent forecast on Monday gave Harris a slight lead over the former president.
It’s the first time since he launched the model that Harris has pulled ahead of Trump, who polls have shown handily beating Biden in key swing states.
Silver left FiveThirtyEight last summer after ABC News decided not to renew his contract.
At the time, parent company Disney had ordered layoffs in the television news division, which included Silver and other FiveThirtyEight staff.
Silver has since moved to create a Substack newsletter that includes forecasting models that analyze the presidential race.
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